Energie : papiers de recherche moissonnés (14/03/2018)

La confrontation des systèmes institutionnels nationaux dans l’interdépendance : les échanges gaziers UE-Russie / Catherine Locatelli. Grenoble: GAEL, 13 p. (working paper GAEL n° 03/2018) https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01715932

Les interdépendances fortes entre l’UE et ses fournisseurs extérieurs en matière de gaz naturel mettent au premier plan les problématiques de conflits et de logiques contradictoires liées à la coexistence d’arrangements institutionnels différents dans l’échange. Cet enjeu émerge clairement sur la relation entre l’UE et la Russie. Dans le même temps, la confrontation de ces deux espaces institutionnels semble avoir un « impact transformatif » sur les régulations, les systèmes institutionnels et les politiques énergétiques de la Russie et de l’UE. Elle ouvre en particulier de nouvelles structures d’opportunités pour les acteurs impliqués. L’objet de cet article est d’analyser les conflits et risques économiques et institutionnels qui résultent de la confrontation de ces deux espaces de régulation. Il est ensuite de mettre en évidence les changements induits par l’interdépendance tant du côté de la Russie que du côté de l’UE.

What are the key drivers of the decision to invest in energy efficiency retrofitting in condominiums ? Final report / Odile Blanchard et Anna Risch. Grenoble: GAEL, 35 p. (Contrat pour Grenoble-Alpes Métropole, dans le cadre du programme MurMur) https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01708042

In this study, we focus on a French program, named Mur Mur, introduced in the urban district of Grenoble in 2010 to increase the number of thermal retrofits in condominiums. This program (i) provides an energy assessment of the condominium and advices in terms of retrofitting to the co-owners and (ii) gives substantial subsidies to co-owners of condominiums that vote for a retrofit. To benefit from those subsidies, the majority of the co-owners of the condominiums simply have to vote in favour of and apply to the program, without any selection process. The only condition to be part of the program relates to the construction year of the building: condominiums must have been built between 1945 and 1975, i.e. before the first French thermal regulation.
In this report, we have two objectives: first, identify the key variables in the decision to apply to the Mur Mur program; second, find out the main drivers of the decision to invest or not in thermal retrofitting for condominiums that applied to the program.

Energy consumption in the french residential sector: how much do individual preferences matter ? Salomé Bakaloglou et Dorothée Charlier. Chaire Economie du climat, March 2018, 41 p. (working paper ; 2018-03) https://www.chaireeconomieduclimat.org/publications/energy-consumption-in-the-french-residencial-sector-how-much-do-individual-preferences-matter/

The aim of this research is to understand the weight of preference heterogeneity in explaining energy consumption in French homes. Using a discrete-continuous model and the conditional mixed-process estimator (CMP) allows us to tackle two potential endogeneities in residential energy consumption: energy prices and the choice of equipment. As a major contribution, we provide evidence that preferences for comfort over energy savings do have significant direct and indirect impacts on energy consumption, especially for high-income households. Preferring comfort over economy or one additional degree of heating implies an average energy overconsumption of 10% and 7.8% respectively, up to 36% for high-income households. Our results strengthen the belief that household heterogeneity is a substantial factor in explaining energy consumption and could have meaningful implications for the design of public policy tools aimed at reducing energy consumption in the residential sector.

Norwegian Gas Exports – Assessment of Resources and Supply to 2035 / Marshall Hall. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, March 2018, 32 p. https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/norwegian-gas-exports-assessment-resources-supply-2035/

Norwegian net gas production reached a record high of 122 bcm in 2017, confounding many industry observers who had in 2016 and 2017 been sceptical of the ability of the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS) to maintain production at 110-115 bcm.  In January 2018, the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) made significant upward revisions to its gas production projections which now show output of 121-123 bcm pa from 2018 to 2022, declining to 112 bcm in 2025 and then stabilising at 90-92 bcm pa in 2030-35. This paper examines the reliability of the NPD’s past projections and the plausibility of its updated projections based on published resource data, exploration activity, the capacity of onshore and offshore gas infrastructure, the demand for gas for improved oil recovery and published field development plans.  It concludes that the recent revisions reflect a confident appraisal of the resource base and the numerous options for new gas development of existing fields and discoveries. The risk of failing to meet the updated projections to about 2027 appears to be low.  Beyond 2027, the projections carry a progressively higher degree of geological, economic and political risk particularly in light of the recent lack of exploration success.  By 2035, 30 bcm of the projected 90 bcm of annual gas production is expected to come from currently undiscovered resources. The visibility of future gas production has diminished in recent years because of the reduction in future delivery commitments in Statoil’s gas sales portfolio. However, the reform of its gas sales since 2010 has conferred valuable new flexibility in future upstream investment decisions to develop and market NCS gas resources. The position of Norway as a reliable and competitive supplier of both contracted and flexible gas to NW Europe appears to be secure for the foreseeable future.

Danièle Revel

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