Climat : papiers de recherche moissonnés (20/03/2018)

Congestion Pricing, Air Pollution and Children’s Health / Emilia Simeonova, Janet Currie, Peter Nilsson, Reed Walker. March 2018. NBER Working Paper No. 24410

This study examines the effects of implementing a congestion tax in central Stockholm on both ambient air pollution and the population health of local children. We demonstrate that the tax reduced ambient air pollution by 5 to 15 percent, and that this reduction in air pollution was associated with a significant decrease in the rate of acute asthma attacks among young children. The change in health was more gradual than the change in pollution suggesting that it may take time for the full health effects of changes in pollution to be felt. Given the sluggish adjustment of health to pollution changes, short-run estimates of the pollution reduction programs may understate the long-run health benefits.

Linking permit markets multilaterally /  Baran Doda, Simon Quemin et Luca Taschini. Chaire économie du climat, Univ Paris Dauphine, mars 2018, 52 p. (working paper N°2018 – 4)

Linkages between emissions trading systems (ETSs) are crucial for the cost-effective implementation of the Paris Agreement. Yet we know little about the determinants of economic gains in a multilaterally linked system, how they are shared among participating jurisdictions and less still about their magnitude. We characterize these gains for an arbitrary linkage group, decompose them into gains in the group’s internal bilateral linkages and prove linkage is superadditive.
Relative to autarky linkage reduces permit price volatility on average but not necessarily for individual linkage group members. In a quantitative application calibrated to five hypothetical ETSs covering the power sectors in Canada, continental Europe, South Korea, the UK and the USA, linking generates gains of up to $370 million (constant 2005US$) per year relative to autarky.
Focusing on linkage groups with two and three members which are themselves not linked, we find that maximum aggregate gains decline by $43-178 million.

Groundswell – Preparing for Internal Climate Migration / Kanta Kumari Rigaud, Alex de Sherbinin, Bryan Jones, Jonas Bergmann, Viviane Clement, Kayly Ober, Jacob Schewe, Susana Adamo,  Brent McCusker, Silke Heuser, Amelia Midgley. Washington DC : World Bank, March 2018, 256 p.

This report, which focuses on three regions—Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America that together represent 55 percent of the developing world’s population—finds that climate change will push tens of millions of people to migrate within their countries by 2050. It projects that without concrete climate and development action, just over 143 million people—or around 2.8 percent of the population of these three regions—could be forced to move within their own countries to escape the slow-onset impacts of climate change. They will migrate from less viable areas with lower water availability and crop productivity and from areas affected by rising sea level and storm surges. The poorest and most climate vulnerable areas will be hardest hit. These trends, alongside the emergence of “hotspots” of climate in- and out-migration, will have major implications for climate-sensitive sectors and for the adequacy of infrastructure and social support systems. The report finds that internal climate migration will likely rise through 2050 and then accelerate unless there are significant cuts in greenhouse gas emissions and robust development action..

The decarbonized pathways of post-Paris climate policy / Sandrine Selosse, Nadia Maïzi. [Research Report] Working Paper 2017-01-25, Chaire Modélisation prospective au service du développement durable. 2017, pp.12 – Les Cahiers de la Chaire.

The historic climate agreement adopted by all countries in December 2015 marks a turning point towards a decarbonized world. Applying a long-term prospective approach, and more precisely the bottom-up optimization model TIAM-FR, we investigate different greenhouse gas emissions mitigation trajectories to discuss these pathways and the corresponding technological solutions in global and regional perspectives. The contribution to GHG mitigation varies according to regions’ development; as the technological choices regarding climate constraints and the evolution of the energy system. Climate constraints tending toward a 2°C objective involve significant decarbonization of the power system with considerable investments in renewable energies in the lower and higher constraints, as well as in carbon capture and storage technologies (CCS), notably bio-energy and CCS (BECCS). CCS technologies start to be installed when climate constraints are high (2°C) but not in scenarios expressing[…]

Reconciling top-down and bottom-up energy/economy models: a case of TIAM-FR and IMACLIM-R / Edi Assoumou, Frédéric Ghersi, Jean Charles Hourcade, Li Jun, Nadia Maïzi, et al. [Research Report] Working Paper 2017-02-26, Chaire Modélisation prospective au service du développement durable. 2017, pp.38 – Les Cahiers de la Chaire.

Recent global economic and environmental forecasts consistently show a trend of continuous decline in natural resources, degradation of environmental quality, increasing vulnerability of economic growth as a result of environmental stress, competition for land and natural resources, soaring energy prices and climate change. These forecasts partly rest on significant efforts by the scientific community over the past three decades to improve knowledge of the interactions between economic growth and the environment; particularly modelling methods have developed to become increasingly applied to the assessment of the environmental and economic consequences of various energy demand and greenhouse gas policies. However, the significantly diverging viewpoints of models developed by energy engineers, or ‘bottom-up’ (BU) models, and those developed by economists, or ‘top-down’ (TD) models, hinder effective dialogue and mutual understanding between researchers from different academic[…]

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