Energie : papiers de recherche moissonnés (10/04/2018)

UK Dependence on Imported Hydrocarbons: How Important is Russia ? / Jack Sharples. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, March 2018, 26 p. (Oxford Energy Insight: 32) https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/uk-dependence-imported-hydrocarbons-important-russia/

The arrival of the first Russian LNG supplies to the UK coincided with the deterioration of UK-Russia diplomatic relations, triggering debates over the role of Russia in UK hydrocarbon imports. Although Russia is the largest supplier of UK coal imports, coal is being phased out of UK energy consumption. Russia is just one of several substantial suppliers of crude oil and refined oil products to the UK, with levels of UK oil demand being strongly linked to developments in the UK transportation fuel mix. By contrast, natural gas is the largest source of UK heat and power generation, and underpins non-transportation sector energy consumption. UK gas import demand is currently largely met by pipeline imports from Norway and LNG imports from Qatar. However, as the UK seeks to cope with fluctuations in domestic gas demand through increased LNG imports and gas trade with north-western Europe, following the closure of the UK’s only seasonal gas storage facility, the challenge to UK energy security is not dependence on Russian gas supplies but rather increasing exposure to international gas market volatility.

Renewable Auction Design in Theory and Practice: Lessons from the Experiences of Brazil and Mexico / Michael Hochberg & Rahmatallah Poudineh. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, April 2018, 62 p. (OIES Paper: EL 28) https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/renewable-auction-design-theory-practice-lessons-experiences-brazil-mexico/

Competitive tendering has become one of the preferred methods of contracting renewable energy generation capacity internationally. As of early 2015, at least 60 countries had adopted renewable energy tenders, compared to just six countries in 2005. However, there are limited country-specific comparisons which research the subject considering the importance and prominence of the issue. The aim of this study is to fill this research gap by examining the Brazilian and Mexican experiences in developing renewables and how their tendering programmes interact with the market and institutional frameworks in which they exist. Fundamentally, our study seeks to shed light on two simple questions: what auction design issues may serve as barriers to renewable development, and how can auctions be improved further? We provide a historical assessment of renewable and generation capacity development policies in both Brazil and Mexico, review auction design and results in both countries, and offer recommendations for the future design and implementation of renewable energy policy tools, and auctions in particular.

Progress, challenges, uncertainty: ambivalent times for Iran’s energy sector / David Ramin Jalilvand. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, April 2018, 11 p. (Oxford Energy Insight: 34) https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/progress-challenges-uncertainty-ambivalent-times-irans-energy-sector/

After more than a decade of announcements and negotiations, the launch of natural gas exports to Iraq and the conclusion of oil and natural gas contracts with Chinese, French, and Russian companies mark significant positive developments for Iran. These initial steps remain below the hopes and expectations of Iranian officials and executives as expressed in the context of the Iran Petroleum Contract (IPC) and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). But, they do constitute important initial successes on Iran’s journey to reconnecting its energy industry internationally. Iran is keen to build on these developments but the future of relations between Iran and the global energy industry will depend to a large extent on how the standoff over the JCPOA unfolds. As long as Tehran abides by the JCPOA, it does not appear likely the EU will reinstate its energy and financial sanctions against Iran. Thus, despite opposing predictions by some analysts, it seems unlikely that a withdrawal from the JCPOA by the US would directly translate into Iranian oil exports falling dramatically – even though some US partners, especially in Asia, may voluntarily choose to partially reduce some of their Iranian oil imports. Nevertheless a US withdrawal from the JCPOA, and the potential re-imposition of extra-territorial US sanctions, would hit Iran’s energy sector hard. Potential penalties on US energy and financial markets would also certainly result in European IOCs effectively being unable to invest in the country. Arguably, the way in which events on the global stage develop will also have direct implications for the domestic political debate surrounding Iranian energy. The lower the level of investment and commitment from international companies to Iran’s energy industry, the weaker the position of President Rohani will be in his attempt to reduce the economic profile of the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC).

Plan de rénovation énergétique des bâtiments : Regards et propositions du Plan Bâtiment Durable : 50 propositions issues de la consultation. France. Plan bâtiment durable, 22 février 2018, 26 p. http://www.planbatimentdurable.fr/IMG/pdf/180222_-_contribution_pbd_plan_de_renovation_vf.pdf

L’équipe du plan Bâtiment durable a présenté le 22 février ses propositions visant à nourrir le plan national de rénovation énergétique des bâtiments, qui sera dévoilé dans les prochaines semaines. Elle recommande d’associer pleinement les territoires à son pilotage. Ses préconisations portent aussi sur le rôle des régions, les contours d’un futur service public de la performance énergétique de l’habitat ou encore le déploiement des plans bâtiment durable régionaux… lire la suite

Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment Report 2018. UN Environment, Frankfurt School-UNEP Collaborating Centre, and Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 5 April 2018 http://fs-unep-centre.org/publications/global-trends-renewable-energy-investment-report-2018

The report  finds that falling costs for solar electricity, and to some extent wind power, is continuing to drive deployment. Last year was the eighth in a row in which global investment in renewables exceeded $200 billion – and since 2004, the world has invested $2.9 trillion in these green energy sources. Overall, China was by far the world’s largest investing country in renewables, at a record $126.6 billion, up 31 per cent on 2016. Solar energy dominated global investment in new power generation like never before in 2017. The world installed a record 98 gigawatts of new solar capacity, far more than the net additions of any other technology – renewable, fossil fuel or nuclear and solar power attracted far more investment, at $160.8 billion, up 18 per cent, than any other technology. In total $279.8 billion was invested in renewables excluding large hydro and  a record 157 gigawatts of renewable power were commissioned last year, up from 143 gigawatts in 2016 and far out-stripping the net 70 gigawatts of fossil-fuel generating capacity added (after adjusting for the closure of some existing plants) over the same period.

Danièle Revel

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