Energie : papiers de recherche moissonnés (13 avril 2018)

Investment-Uncertainty Relationship in the Oil and Gas Industry / M. Ahmadi, M. Manera, M. Sadeghzadeh. Milano : Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, April 2018, 40 p. (Nota di Lavoro 13.2018) https://www.feem.it/en/publications/feem-working-papers-note-di-lavoro-series/investment-uncertainty-relationship-in-the-oil-and-gas-industry/

Recent studies on oil market demonstrate endogeneity of oil price by modeling it as a function of consumption and precautionary demands and producers’ supply. However, studies analysing the effect of oil price uncertainty on investment, do not disentangle uncertainties raised by underlying components playing a role in oil market. Accordingly, this study investigates the relationship between investment and uncertainty for a panel of U.S. firms operating in oil and gas industry with a new approach. We decompose oil price volatility to be driven by structural shocks that are recognized in oil market literature, over and above other determinants, to study whether investment uncertainty relationship depends on the drivers of uncertainty. Our findings suggest that oil market uncertainty lowers investment only when it is caused by global consumption demand shocks. Stock market uncertainty is found to have a negative effect on investment with a year of delay. The results suggest no positive relation between irreversible investment and uncertainty, but interestingly, positive relation exists for reversible investment. This finding is in line with the option theory of investment and implies that irreversibility effect of increased uncertainty dominates the traditional convexity effect.

Internal and External Barriers to Energy Efficiency: Made-to-Measure Policy Interventions / C. Cattaneo. Milano : Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Feb. 2018, 35 p. (Nota di Lavoro 8.2018) https://www.feem.it/en/publications/feem-working-papers-note-di-lavoro-series/internal-and-external-barriers-to-energy-efficiency-made-to-measure-policy-interventions/

This paper has two objectives. First it provides a correlation between internal and external barriers to energy efficiency and consumer behaviour related to two domains. It evaluates behaviour related to energy curtailment, which represents routine, repetitive effort to decrease consumption on a day-to-day basis. It also considers behaviour related to investments, which are one time actions such as purchasing new energy efficiency technologies.. Second, it assesses the effectiveness of the different interventions and programs in addressing the two types of barriers (internal and external) with the aim of informing the policy debate. By assessing the value of a large number of interventions, this paper is one of the first that combines in a unified framework the main findings of different disciplines, from economics to psychology.

Modelling the Global Price of Oil: Is there any Role for the Oil Futures-spot Spread? / D. Valent. Milano : Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Feb. 2018, 41 p. (Nota di Lavoro 6.2018) https://www.feem.it/en/publications/feem-working-papers-note-di-lavoro-series/modelling-the-global-price-of-oil-is-there-any-role-for-the-oil-futures-spot-spread/

In this work, we propose an analysis of the global market for crude oil based on a revised version of the Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model introduced by Kilian and Murphy (2014). On this respect, we replace the global proxy for above-ground crude oil inventories with the oil futures-spot spread. The latter is defined as the percent deviation of the oil futures price from the spot price of oil and it represents a measure of the convenience yield but expressed with an opposite sign. The following model provides an economic interpretation of the residual structural shock, namely the financial market shock. This new shock is designed to capture an unanticipated change in the benefit of holding crude oil inventories that is driven by financial incentives. We find evidence that financial market shocks have played an important role in explaining the rises in the price of oil during the period 2003-2008.

L’Energiewende et la transition énergétique à l’horizon 2030 : focus sur le secteur électrique. Impacts croisés des choix de la France et de l’Allemagne sur le nucléaire et le charbon dans le contexte du développement des énergies renouvelables. Agora Energiewende, Iddri, mars 2018, 140 p. https://www.iddri.org/fr/publications-et-evenements/rapport/lenergiewende-et-la-transition-energetique-lhorizon-2030

Cette étude souligne l’interdépendance de choix politiques nationaux au-delà des frontières. Nous espérons qu’elle contribuera à faciliter un dialogue transparent et ouvert entre les acteurs des deux pays [France et Allemagne], favorisera l’élaboration d’une compréhension commune de la transition énergétique et l’atteinte de compromis nécessaires à l’approfondissement de l’intégration du système énergétique européen. (© Patrick Graichen, directeur d’Agora Energiewende et Michel Colombier, directeur scientifique de l’Iddri)

A comparison of public preferences for different low-carbon energy technologies: Support for CCS, nuclear and wind energy in the United Kingdom / Hao Yu, David M. Reiner, Hao Chen, Zhifu Mi. Energy Policy Research Group, April 2018, 27 p. (EPRG working paper ; 1810) https://www.eprg.group.cam.ac.uk/eprg-working-paper-1810/

Using a representative national survey in the United Kingdom, we investigated public attitudes towards different low-carbon technologies (carbon capture and storage (CCS), wind and nuclear power) and the factors influencing public support. Overall, we found that respondents were far more likely to support wind energy as their preferred means of mitigating climate change. Older people and those of a higher social grade are more supportive of nuclear power, while age and social grade do not significantly affect support for wind energy. Supporters of the Conservative Party were more likely to oppose wind power. Neither attitudes towards climate change nor environmental attitudes were found to influence public support for wind power or nuclear. Trust in information from environmental groups was associated with greater support for wind energy but lower support for nuclear power. Perceived cost and objective knowledge significantly influenced public support for all three technology types, that is, higher perceived costs and the poorer objective knowledge lead to lower public support. However, self-assessed knowledge did not influence public support. Many factors, including most of the tested demographic factors, did not affect support for any of the three technologies.

Marché carbone européen : les impacts de la réforme et de la réserve de stabilité à l’horizon 2030 / Simon Quemin et Raphaël Trotignon. Chaire Economie du climat, 28 mars 2018 https://www.chaireeconomieduclimat.org/publications/policy-briefs/marche-carbone-europeen-impacts-de-reforme-de-reserve-de-stabilite-a-lhorizon-2030

Un ensemble de réformes vient d’être adopté au niveau européen pour définir les règles de fonctionnement du marché carbone à l’horizon 2030. A partir d’une version refondue du modèle ZEPHYR, ce Policy Brief présente une évaluation des impacts de ces réformes sur le prix des quotas et les réductions d’émissions…

Danièle Revel

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