Energie : papiers de recherche moissonnés (18/04/2018)

Disruptive Change in the Transport Sector, Oxford Energy Forum,  n° 112, March 2018 https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/oxford-energy-forum-disruptive-change-transport-sector-issue-112/

This issue of the Oxford Energy Forum is devoted to investigating disruptive change in the transport sector. There are three forces shaping or disrupting the road transport sector, namely: autonomous vehicles, transport electrification, and shared mobility. The interactions between the three will determine the future of energy use in transport. The determinants of these three disruptors include factors such as government policies, technological advances, infrastructure, battery costs, material supply chains, consumer behaviour,
and the development of alternative
fuels. The articles in this issue analyse in detail each of the three disruptors and their associated drivers and constraints, presenting a range of views on the future of transport and energy use.

Perspectives for the Energy Transition: The Role of Energy Efficiency. Paris : IEA, 2018, 124 p. https://webstore.iea.org/perspectives-for-the-energy-transition-investment-needs-for-a-low-carbon-energy-system

In support of its presidency of the G20 in 2017, the German government requested the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the International Renewable Energy Agency to explore how an energy transition to address climate change might look. In this follow-up study, the IEA takes stock of progress towards a low-carbon energy sector and provides further insights into the fundamentally important role of energy efficiency to achieve a clean energy transition.

Avoided economic impacts of energy demand changes by 1.5 and 2 °C climate stabilization / Chan Park, Shinichiro Fujimori, Tomoko Hasegawa, Jun’ya Takakura, Kiyoshi Takahashi and Yasuaki Hijioka, Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 13, n° 4, 16 April 2018 http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aab724/meta

Energy demand associated with space heating and cooling is expected to be affected by climate change. There are several global projections of space heating and cooling use that take into consideration climate change, but a comprehensive uncertainty of socioeconomic and climate conditions, including a 1.5 °C global mean temperature change, has never been assessed. This paper shows the economic impact of changes in energy demand for space heating and cooling under multiple socioeconomic and climatic conditions. We use three shared socioeconomic pathways as socioeconomic conditions. For climate conditions, we use two representative concentration pathways that correspond to 4.0 °C and 2.0 °C scenarios, and a 1.5 °C scenario driven from the 2.0 °C scenario with assumption in conjunction with five general circulation models. We find that the economic impacts of climate change are largely affected by socioeconomic assumptions, and global GDP change rates range from +0.21% to −2.01% in 2100 under the 4.0 °C scenario, depending on the socioeconomic condition. Sensitivity analysis that differentiates the thresholds of heating and cooling degree days clarifies that the threshold is a strong factor that generates these differences. Meanwhile, the impact of the 1.5 °C is small regardless of socioeconomic assumptions (−0.02% to −0.06%). The economic loss caused by differences in socioeconomic assumption under the 1.5 °C scenario is much smaller than that under the 2 °C scenario, which implies that stringent climate mitigation can work as a risk hedge to socioeconomic development diversity.

Bilan électrique français 2017. RTE, avril 2018  https://www.rte-france.com/fr/actualite/bilan-electrique-2017-l-evolution-du-parc-de-production-electrique-francais-s-accelere

En 2017, le parc de production français a poursuivi sa mutation avec la fermeture de cinq groupes thermiques au fioul (- 3 025 MW) et la progression du parc des énergies renouvelables (+ 2 763 MW). Le développement des parcs éolien et solaire, dont la production augmente de 14,8 % et 9,2 %,  permet de compenser, en partie, la baisse de production nucléaire et hydraulique. La consommation corrigée reste stable, avec 475 TWh.

Global Energy Transformation: A Roadmap to 2050. Abu Dhabi : Irena, April 2018, 76 p. http://www.irena.org/publications/2018/Apr/Global-Energy-Transition-A-Roadmap-to-2050

Renewable energy needs to be scaled up at least six times faster for the world to meet the decarbonisation and climate mitigation goals set out in the Paris Agreement, says the report. The historic 2015 climate accord seeks, at minimum, to limit average global temperature rise to “well below 2°C” in the present century, compared to pre-industrial levels. As this 2018 report from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) shows, renewable energy and energy efficiency can, in combination, provide over 90% of the necessary energy-related CO₂ emission reductions. Furthermore, this can happen using technologies that are safe, reliable, affordable and widely available. While different paths can mitigate climate change, renewables and energy efficiency provide the optimal pathway to deliver most of the emission cuts needed at the necessary speed…

Danièle Revel

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