Energie : papiers de recherche moissonnés (1/06/2018)

Se situer dans la transition énergétique : un impératif pour toutes les entreprises / Vivian Dépoues, Frédéric Granger et Benoît Leguet. Paris : I4CE, mai 2018, 6 p. (Point climat N°53) https://www.i4ce.org/download/se-situer-transition-energetique-imperatif-toutes-entreprises-3/

Pour de nombreuses entreprises, la redéfinition de la valeur qu’elles créent dans un monde bas en carbone reste un chantier à ouvrir. Si la neutralité carbone est une contrainte, c’est une contrainte créative, invitant à ré-imaginer ce qui fait le cœur d’un produit ou d’un service. Il n’est pas envisageable de faire advenir un monde bas carbone dans lequel on ne s’alimenterait plus, on ne se déplacerait plus du tout, on ne s’habillerait plus…

Etude sur les perspectives stratégiques de l’énergie / E-CUBE Strategy Consultants. Paris : Commission de régulation de l’énergie, 2018 http://prospective.cre.fr/etude-sur-les-perspectives-strategiques-dans-le-secteur-de-lenergie/

Le secteur de l’énergie connaît des bouleversements majeurs et une mutation accélérée en Europe et dans le monde, sous l’action de deux révolutions : la transition énergétique et la transformation numérique. L’étude réalisée par la société E-CUBE Strategy Consultants commandée par la CRE dans le cadre de son Comité de prospective laisse entrevoir ces transformations majeures.

Les énergies renouvelables : le monopole solaire-éolien. Géopolitique de l’Electricité, n° 84, 31 mai 2018, 10 p. http://www.geopolitique-electricite.com/

Il y a dix ans, un tiers des investissements mondiaux concernant les énergies renouvelables était consacré à d’autres sources que le solaire et l’éolien. En 2007, 60 milliards de dollars s’étaient dirigés vers les biocarburants, la biomasse, la petite hydraulique, la géothermie et les énergies marines. En 2017, ce montant s’est réduit à moins de 12 milliards. Solaire et éolien bénéficient désormais de 96% des fonds. Cette évolution est majeure.
L’électricité, seule débouché possible du solaire et de l’éolien, ne compte que pour 18,5% de la consommation finale d’énergie mondiale. L’impact de ces deux sources sur le mix énergétique est marginal. Il est faible pour les émissions de gaz à effet de serre.
Il existe une contradiction entre les baisses des prix de production du solaire et de l’éolien et une augmentation continue des factures des clients. La cause est une profonde mutation des secteurs électriques, dont les coûts suivant plusieurs Cour des Comptes ne sont pas maîtrisés voire mal connus. Les autres moyens de réduire les émissions manquent de moyens financiers. L’établissement du monopole solaire+éolien pour les renouvelables apparaît comme dommageable à la lutte contre le réchauffement climatique.

Sustainable Transitions and Complex Socio-technical Systems: Renewable Energy and the Electricity Grid in the USA, UK and Germany / Anne-Marie Coles and S R Peters.  University of Greenwich, Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre. 2018, 20 p. (Greenwich Papers in Political Economy 20230) https://ideas.repec.org/p/gpe/wpaper/20230.html

Transitions management identifies broad national efforts that attempt to govern sociotechnical change along more environmentally sustainable pathways. Although the complexity of such endeavours is generally acknowledged, it is not yet clear how governance practices work at an international level. This paper utilises the transitions management concept to compare three countries in their attempts to increase the adoption and use of renewable energy technologies. It notes that analysis at a micro-level needs to focus on the actions and requirements of particular user groups for a deeper elucidation of transition management processes. Furthermore, the complexity of socio-technical change processes implies that transitions management is a more useful concept when focused at the micro-level of change rather than at the macro-level of strategy formulation over the longer term.

The rise of renewables and energy transition: what adaptation strategy for oil companies and oil-exporting countries? / Bassam Fattouh, Rahmatallah Poudineh & Rob West, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, May 2018, 25 p. (OIES paper : MEP 19) https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/rise-renewables-energy-transition-adaptation-strategy-oil-companies-oil-exporting-countries/

The energy landscape is changing rapidly with far-reaching implications for global energy industries and actors, including oil companies and oil-exporting countries. These rapid changes introduce uncertainty in multiple dimensions, the most important of which is the speed of transition.  While the transformation of energy systems is rapid in certain regions of the world, such as Europe, the speed of global energy transition remains uncertain. It is also difficult to define the end game (which technology will win and what the final energy mix will be), as the outcome of transition will vary across regions. A key issue facing oil companies and oil-exporting countries is how they should now position themselves and how best to be part of the renewables ‘revolution’. For oil companies, moving beyond their core business is risky, but a ‘wait-and-see’ strategy could be costly, therefore oil companies need to gradually ‘extend’ their business model and rather than a complete shift from hydrocarbons to renewables, they should aim to build an integrated portfolio which includes both hydrocarbon and low-carbon assets. The strategies designed to make this happen need to be flexible and able to evolve quickly in response to anticipated changes in the market. For oil-exporting countries, with subsidized prices and rising domestic energy consumption, there is no conflict between investing in renewables or in hydrocarbons as these countries can liberate oil and gas for export markets, improving the economics of renewables projects. In the long run, however, the main challenge for many oil exporting countries is economic diversification as it is the ultimate safeguard against the energy transition. Whether or not these countries succeed in their goal of achieving a diversified economy has implications for global energy markets and the speed of global energy transformations. In other words, the global energy transition will not only shape political and economic outcomes in oil-exporting countries, but the transformations in these major oil-exporting countries will, in turn, shape the global energy transition – adding another layer of uncertainty to the already complex phenomenon of energy transition.

Solutions for maintaining the existing nuclear fleet / Doug Vine. Arlington: Center for Climate Energy Solutions, May 2018, 46 p. https://www.c2es.org/document/solutions-for-maintaining-the-existing-nuclear-fleet/

Nuclear power is responsible for around 20 percent of U.S. electricity generation and more than 50 percent of its zero-emission generation. However, these large sources of zero-emission power are being prematurely retired with respect to their operating licenses because of low wholesale electricity prices resulting from low natural gas prices, excess power generation capacity, declining renewable energy costs, and low growth in electricity demand. Unfortunately, nuclear generation is largely being replaced by fossil fuel-fired electricity, sending U.S. emissions in the wrong direction. With a finite amount of carbon dioxide that we can emit before we reach 450 ppm and increase the likelihood of serious climate impacts, we cannot afford such backsliding.

Danièle Revel

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