Energie : papiers de recherche moissonnés (vendredi 8 juin 2018)

The US Exit from the JCPOA: What Consequences for Iranian Energy? / David Ramin Jalilvand, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, June 2018, 8 p. (oxford energy comment) https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/us-exit-jcpoa-consequences-iranian-energy/

On May 8, the United States announced their immediate and full withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). This came with the re-imposition of all nuclear-related US sanctions and possibly several new sanctions.

It is common knowledge that before implementation of the JCPOA in January 2016, Iran’s energy industry has been suffering tremendously from international sanctions. Amongst others, the sanctions caused a sharp decline in oil exports and forced all European companies out of the country.

The resulting question is: What consequences will there be for Iranian energy this time? The brief answer is that the short-term effects will be lower than in 2012, and mainly consist of a decline in oil exports in the range of perhaps 15 to 20 per cent compared with 2017 levels of around 2.5 million b/d. At least for some time, the loss in oil exports will be offset by larger oil revenue as a result of higher oil prices. In the long-run, though, the country’s oil and natural gas sector is probably going to be confronted with a formidable challenge.

Renewables 2018 Global Status Report. A comprehensive annual overview of the state of renewable energy. REN21, 2018, 325 p. www.ren21.net/gsr_2018_full_report_en

This year’s report reveals two realities: one in which a revolution in the power sector is driving rapid change towards a renewable energy future, and another in which the overall transition is not advancing with the speed needed to meet climate change objectives and sustainable development goals…

Decarbonization and liberalization in the power sector: international perspectives, Oxford Energy Forum, n° 114, June 2018, 58 p. https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/oxford-energy-forum-decarbonization-liberalization-power-sector-international-perspectives-issue-114/

Oxford Energy Forum 104 (February 2016) looked at the transformation under way in the electricity sector, driven by technological developments and policies on decarbonization. It focused mainly on OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries, and on Europe in particular, where there are major challenges, ranging from the practical issues associated with the integration of the new intermittent renewable sources to the wider policy question of whether there is a fundamental conflict between two objectives – decarbonization and liberalization – to which these countries are committed. This issue of the Forum explores related issues, but on a wider canvas – countries across the world, with a diverse range of approaches, many outside the OECD.

Danièle Revel

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