Energie : papiers de recherche moissonnés (13 juin 2018)

New and Emerging LNG Markets: The Demand Shock / Sylvie Cornot-Gandolphe. Paris : Ifri, juin 2018, 86 p. (Etudes de l’Ifri) https://www.ifri.org/en/publications/etudes-de-lifri/new-and-emerging-lng-markets-demand-shock

Au cours de la dernière décennie, de nombreux marchés émergents ont rejoint le club des importateurs de gaz naturel liquéfié (GNL). Alors qu’ils n’étaient que sept en 2010, on compte désormais dix-sept pays émergents importateurs de GNL… lire la suite

Coal Exit or Coal Expansion? A Review of Coal Market Trends and Policies in 2017 / Sylvie Cornot-Gandolphe. Paris : Ifri, mai 2018, 80 p. (Etudes de l’Ifri) https://www.ifri.org/en/publications/etudes-de-lifri/coal-exit-or-coal-expansion-review-coal-market-trends-and-policies-2017

Coal in the power sector is the principal focus of climate-related policies due to its high carbon intensity, making CO₂ emissions from coal a leading contributor to climate change. While 38% of global power generation come from coal (in 2017), coal-related CO₂ emissions represent more than 70% of power sector emissions. Coal-fired power plants are also the leading source of all primary air pollutants within the power sector, causing respiratory diseases and premature deaths…

The Future of Asia’s Natural Gas Market: The Need for a Regional LNG Hub / Leslie Palti-Guzman, Asia Policy, advance release https://doi.org/10.1353/asp.0.0001

Despite being the world’s largest LNG-consuming region and the fastest-growing LNG market, Asia still lacks an LNG trading hub and associated pricing benchmark that reflect the region’s gas market fundamentals and send a reliable price signal for imports. Recent changes in the LNG market have improved conditions for the emergence of one or more hub-based prices in Asia as an alternative to oil-indexation, the prevalent LNG pricing structure in the region. In addition, an oversupplied market has created a common need between buyers and sellers to find new ways to trade and finance LNG at a time of demand uncertainty and investment shortfalls. These developments not only would make the LNG market more open, transparent, and competitive by facilitating physical exchanges and hedging but also would bring broader benefits, including greater regional integration, enhanced energy security, and greener economic development. Singapore is well-positioned to serve as an LNG hub, given its geographic position; established trade, legal, and financial ecosystem; and progress toward assuming this role.

Egypt – a return to a balanced gas market? / Mostefa Ouki. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, 2018, 36 p. (OIES Paper: NG 131) https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/egypt-return-balanced-gas-market/

In 2015, Egypt became a net gas importer. This unfortunate, but not unexpected, situation was the result of a decline in Egypt’s indigenous natural gas production combined with a rapidly rising domestic gas demand driven mainly by large energy price subsidies. Major changes are presently taking place on the gas supply side which are significantly impacting the country’s natural gas balance. The Egyptian government is also carrying out energy price reform measures to reduce gas demand growth and the financial burden of price subsidies. But, without the continued implementation of consistent and integrated energy demand-side management and reform measures, Egypt could again be exposed to an unpleasant gas supply surplus/deficit cycle.  The quick answer to the question posed in this paper’s title ‘Egypt – a return to a balanced gas market?’ could be: yes, but not for long. However, this short statement would not do justice to the considerable efforts deployed by all the relevant stakeholders in relaunching Egypt’s hydrocarbon sector. It would also ignore the fact that the answer is only based on current publicly available data and information on both the supply and demand sides.

Enhancing the public acceptance of crossborder electricity interconnection projects : a crucial step in the EU energy transition process / Catharina Sikom-Magny, and Nikolaos Vasilakos. Florence School of Regulation, May 2018, 10 p. (Policy brief ; 2018/06) http://cadmus.eui.eu//handle/1814/55424

While electricity interconnectors bring concrete and measurable benefits to the European economy and citizens, there is, nevertheless, a number of key prerequisites that must be fulfilled, in order for these interconnectors to unfold their full socioeconomic potential, namely: i) establishing a well-functioning EU energy market (“software”), ii) involving the public constructively and effectively, iii) meeting the financing challenge of cross-border investments, and iv) accounting for the specificities of national energy policies, mixes and profiles. Public involvement and acceptance is one of the most crucial and challenging factors that may strongly influence the design, the realisation rate, but also the final outcome of an electricity infrastructure project. Many such projects have had to find solutions to public acceptance issues, typically because of perceived risks to health (despite converging scientific evidence to the contrary), the visual impact of the infrastructure in the landscape and/or the impact on the natural environment. As a result, such public concern has often led to significant procedural and time delays, or redesign of some projects, such as for instance change from overhead technology to technologically more challenging and considerably more expensive (3-8 times higher cost for the same capacity) undergrounding, in the middle of the process. The present paper explores the important issues associated with the involvement of the public (citizens, civil society groups and relevant stakeholder groups), potentially affected by the development of new interconnectors, in their design, permitting and realisation process. The paper identifies a number of distinguishing features, weaknesses and obstacles that can strongly influence public attitudes towards new interconnector development, and probes relevant questions, such as: Are the practices applied to ensure public acceptance fit for purpose? Where is the space for improvement? Are some pro- jects affected more by the lack of public acceptance than others, and how can this be balanced? Finally, the paper proposes specific measures, actions and initiatives that can significantly raise public awareness, promote constructive involvement and enhance acceptance of important cross-border electricity infrastructure by the public.

Electric vehicles and electricity / David Robinson. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, June 2018, 19 p. https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/electric-vehicles-electricity/

There is a broad consensus that penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) will rise throughout the world, but great uncertainty as to the timing and extent. There is also a growing recognition that automated, shared and electric vehicles (SAEVs) will be an important part of the coming revolution in sustainable mobility. Particularly in combination, shared mobility, automation and electric powertrains can result in major reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transportation, as well as significantly less air pollution and greater social equality. This article adopts these views as a starting point.

The central questions addressed here are: what will determine the speed and nature of EV deployment; what barriers could slow the process; and, more specifically, could the electricity system and its regulatory regime be barriers to EV penetration, or rather assist that penetration. The focus is mainly on Europe and on passenger light-duty vehicles, including battery EVs (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid EV’s (PHEVs) in cities.

The central message is that, while electricity is obviously necessary for EV penetration, it is very unlikely to constitute a barrier to penetration, unless policy and regulation are badly designed or implemented.

Danièle Revel

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