Energie : papiers de recherche moissonnés (18/06/2018)

OPEC at the Crossroads / Bassam Fattouh & Andreas Economou. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, June 2018, 20 p. (Oxford Energy insight ; 37) https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/opec-at-the-crossroads/

As the OPEC oil ministers prepare to meet for their bi-annual Ordinary Meeting on 22 June, they are faced with some difficult choices. On the one hand, by extending the output cutbacks amidst a higher risk of output disruptions, OPEC risks overtightening the oil market and pushing oil prices higher, leading to an inevitable demand response. Moreover, involuntary cuts originating mainly from Venezuela, Angola, and Mexico mean that the oil market is tightening more quickly than anticipated. On the other hand, by exiting the agreement too early OPEC runs the risk of prices falling if such a decision is not supported by favourable market conditions, especially as ‘the clouds over the global economy are getting darker by the day’, and risks dismantling a historic coalition of OPEC/NOPEC producers which took massive diplomatic efforts to put together and the coordination of which proved critical for the rebalancing effort. In this Energy Insight, we consider the hard realities of oil market and price dynamics for 2018 and 2019 to derive, analyse, and assess, oil output policy scenarios that are likely to drive discussions during the upcoming OPEC Ministerial Meeting, through the lens of a structural VAR model of the global oil market…

A low energy demand scenario for meeting the 1.5 °C target and sustainable development goals without negative emission technologies / Arnulf Grubler, Charlie Wilson, Nuno Bento, et al., Nature Energy, vol. 3, June 2018, pp. 515-527 https://www-nature-com/articles/s41560-018-0172-6

Scenarios that limit global warming to 1.5 °C describe major transformations in energy supply and ever-rising energy demand. Here, we provide a contrasting perspective by developing a narrative of future change based on observable trends that results in low energy demand. We describe and quantify changes in activity levels and energy intensity in the global North and global South for all major energy services. We project that global final energy demand by 2050 reduces to 245 EJ, around 40% lower than today, despite rises in population, income and activity. Using an integrated assessment modelling framework, we show how changes in the quantity and type of energy services drive structural change in intermediate and upstream supply sectors (energy and land use). Down-sizing the global energy system dramatically improves the feasibility of a low-carbon supply-side transformation. Our scenario meets the 1.5 °C climate target as well as many sustainable development goals, without relying on negative emission technologies.

Statistical Review of World Energy 2018. BP, June 2018 https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html

Global primary energy consumption grew strongly in 2017, led by natural gas and renewables, with coal’s share of the energy mix continuing to decline

La PPE : dix raisons pour lesquelles le gouvernement fait fausse route sur l’avenir de notre système électrique : dossier. Réseau Action Climat, juin 2018, 31 p. https://reseauactionclimat.org/10-raisons-gouvernement-fausse-route-systeme-electrique/
  • La consommation d’électricité en France va désormais diminuer
  • Le potentiel de développement des énergies renouvelables est énorme. Celles-ci pourront entièrement se substituer au nucléaire et aux énergies fossiles
  • Les énergies renouvelables créent de la valeur et des emplois sur tous les territoires
  • Les énergies renouvelables, ça coûte de moins en moins cher
  • Il est possible de fermer en même temps les centrales au charbon et des réacteurs nucléaires sans réchauffer le climat
  • Plus on réduit les pics de consommation d’électricité, plus on peut se passer d’énergies nucléaire et fossiles
  • La France risque de produire beaucoup trop d’électricité nucléaire par rapport à ses besoins (l’équivalent de 20 réacteurs)
  • Le nucléaire est un risque de moins en moins contrôlable et un verrou pour la transition énergétique
  • Le nucléaire coûte déjà beaucoup trop cher
  • Le nucléaire, EDF et la filière en grande difficulté financière

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