Climat : papiers de recherche moissonnés (23/08/2018)

Climate change and health: Moving from theory to practice: edito / Jonathan A. Patz and Madeleine C. Thomson. PLoS Med 15(7), July 31, 2018 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1002628

This special issue of PLOS Medicine brings together the latest research across many of these health risk pathways, as well as highlighting at-risk populations, such as women, children, and small island populations. New findings indicate that heat waves can affect cognitive abilities, rainfall extremes could increase sewage contamination in cities, warmer temperatures produce hazardous ozone air pollution, and wildfires, as occurred recently in California, have substantial adverse consequences for human health. Some surprising findings from research studies have also emerged: countering the perceived potential benefit of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions on plant growth and food security, CO2-induced nutritional deficiencies have been highlighted.

Living. Moving. Breathing. Ranking of European Cities in Sustainable Transport / Santhosh Kodukula, Frederic Rudolph, Ulrich Jansen, Eva Amon.  Wuppertal Institute, 2018, 106 p. https://www.greenpeace.de/sites/www.greenpeace.de/files/publications/living.moving.breathing.20180604.pdf

This study, commissioned by Greenpeace, shows that more cyclists and pedestrians can make cities safer. The ranking, compiled by the Wuppertal Institute and funded by Greenpeace, compared 13 metropolises in terms of public transport, road safety, air quality, mobility management, and the proportion of cyclists and pedestrians. The result: Amsterdam and Copenhagen, residents travel about a third of their trips by bicycle, and these cities have the fewest bicycle accidents.
Less than 1 accident is reported for every 1 million bicycle trips in Copenhagen and in Amsterdam there are about 1.2 accidents. In both cities over one-third of the trips are done by a bicycle. In Berlin, the share is just under 13 per cent and with a high frequency of accidents. Berlin has about 14.3 accidents reported every 1 million cycling trips, the share is under 1 in Copenhagen and is 1.2 accidents in Amsterdam. Of the cities analysed London has the highest share with 22.3 accidents every 1 million bicycle trips preceded by Brussels with 21.4 accidents every 1 million bicycle trips… read more

The Resilience of the Paris Climate Agreement: Negotiating and Implementing the Climate Regime / Rafael Leal-Arcas and Antonio Morelli. Queen Mary School of Law Legal Studies Research Paper No. 284/2018, 55 p. (forthcoming in Georgetown Environmental Law Review, Vol. 31.1) https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3236985

The Paris Climate Agreement is undoubtedly one of the greatest diplomatic achievements of the Obama-Kerry administration. Yet under the Trump presidency, it is under threat of being dismantled, just like many other International Agreements, such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership. This article explains that such dismantling will be hard to achieve because the success of the Paris Agreement does not only rest in its negotiation phase, but is supported through a bottom-up approach in the implementation phase and the potential of the international trading system. With an analysis of the climate regime’s negotiation and implementation, this paper aims at demonstrating why dismantling the Paris Climate Agreement will be hard and not favored by the plurality of actors involved in the process.

A novel probabilistic forecast system predicting anomalously warm 2018-2022 reinforcing the long-term global warming trend / Florian Sévellec & Sybren S. Drijfhout, Nature Communications, vol. 9, Article number: 3024 (2018) http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-05442-8

In a changing climate, there is an ever-increasing societal demand for accurate and reliable interannual predictions. Accurate and reliable interannual predictions of global temperatures are key for determining the regional climate change impacts that scale with global temperature, such as precipitation extremes, severe droughts, or intense hurricane activity, for instance. However, the chaotic nature of the climate system limits prediction accuracy on such timescales. Here we develop a novel method to predict global-mean surface air temperature and sea surface temperature, based on transfer operators, which allows, by-design, probabilistic forecasts. The prediction accuracy is equivalent to operational forecasts and its reliability is high. The post-1998 global warming hiatus is well predicted. For 2018–2022, the probabilistic forecast indicates a warmer than normal period, with respect to the forced trend. This will temporarily reinforce the long-term global warming trend. The coming warm period is associated with an increased likelihood of intense to extreme temperatures. The important numerical efficiency of the method (a few hundredths of a second on a laptop) opens the possibility for real-time probabilistic predictions carried out on personal mobile devices.


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