Energie : papiers de recherche moissonnés (31/08/2018)

Are Renewables Profitable in 2030? A Comparison between Wind and Solar across Europe / Valentin Bertsch, Valeria Di Cosmo. Milan : Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Aug. 2018, 36 p. (Nota di Lavoro 28.2018) https://www.feem.it/en/publications/feem-working-papers-note-di-lavoro-series/are-renewables-profitable-in-2030-a-comparison-between-wind-and-solar-across-europe/

The European Union has set ambitious targets for emission reduction and the penetration of renewable energy, including the electricity generation sector as one of the major emitters of CO2. After a period of subsidy-driven investments, the costs of renewables decreased strongly making investments more attractive. Since European countries differ strongly in terms of natural resources, we analyse the profitability of wind onshore and offshore and solar PV across Europe to determine where it is optimal to invest in the future and to understand which factors drive the profitability of the investments. We use a power systems model to simulate the whole European electricity market in 2030. Using the renewable revenues determined by the model, we calculate the internal rate of return to analyse how profitable each technology is in each country. We find that investments in the considered technologies are not homogeneously profitable across Europe. This suggests that cooperation between European countries can be expected to achieve the overall targets at lower costs than nationally-driven approaches. We also find that in many countries, wind onshore and solar PV are profitable by 2030 in absence of any financial support. Wind offshore does not seem to be profitable without financial support.

Débat public sur la programmation pluriannuelle de l’énergie du 19 mars au 30 juin 2018 – le compte-rendu et le bilan (rédigé par Chantal Jouanno) sont disponibles ici : https://ppe.debatpublic.fr/compte-rendu-bilan-du-debat

La programmation pluriannuelle de l’énergie (PPE) est un outil de pilotage de la politique énergétique qui couvre deux périodes successives (2019-2023 et 2024-2028). Créée par la loi de transition énergétique pour la croissance verte (TECV) en 2015, elle traduit les orientations et priorités d’action des pouvoirs publics pour la gestion de l’ensemble des formes d’énergie sur le territoire métropolitain continental…

The Impacts of renewable energy on wholesale power markets / James Bushnell and Kevin Novan. Energy Institute at Haas, Aug. 2018, 58 p. (Energy Institute WP 292) https://ei.haas.berkeley.edu/research/papers/WP292.pdf

Grid scale solar output has dramatically expanded in California over the last 5 years, transforming the California power market and the economics of electricity generation. Bushnell and Novan find that, while the solar expansion has lowered wholesale electricity prices on average, it has increased wholesale prices during morning and evening periods. There are two important implications of these findings. First, the California wholesale market is adjusting to the variable supply of renewables in a way that favors more flexible conventional generation that can fill the gaps in supply left by variable renewable resources. Second, the market value of renewable resources, as captured by the wholesale market, is rapidly diminishing with each additional MW of solar capacity added to the California grid.

Environmental impact indicators for the electricity mix and network development planning towards 2050 – A POLES and EUTGRID model / J.-N. Louis, S. Allard, V. Debusschere, S. Mima, T. Tran-Quoc & N. Hadjsaid,  Energy, vol. 163, pp. 618-628 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2018.08.093

Most prospective studies of the European power system rely on least-cost evaluations. This study assessed the influence of environmental impact indicators on prioritisation of ‘dispatchable’ technologies in the European energy mix up to 2050, compared with a purely cost-optimal system based on carbon tax incentives, without suppressing economic growth considerations. A model that combined the Prospective Outlook for Long-term Energy Systems model (POLES) and the European and Transmission Grid Investment and Dispatch model (EUTGRID)was used in the analysis. Combined current and prospective life cycle assessment (LCA) methodologies were added to the EUTGRID model to include environmental considerations in the decision-making process. Shifting from an economic to an environmental merit order in prioritisation increased the share of renewables by 2.65% (with variations between countries) and decreased overall emissions by 9.00%. This involved a change in grid infrastructure. Investments were found to be more important when optimisation was based on an environmental criterion on new high-voltage AC power lines, which resulted in a 1.50% increase in the overall cost of the power system. Finally, considering an environmental, instead of an economic, merit order allowed decarbonisation to be achieved slightly faster, resulting in lower cumulative greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere.

Danièle Revel

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