Energie : papiers de recherche moissonnés (7/09/2018)

Sauver EDF par la transition. WWF France, août 2018, 20 p. (Briefing paper) https://www.wwf.fr/vous-informer/actualites/sauver-edf-par-la-transition

Alors que la présentation de la Programmation pluriannuelle de l’énergie est prévue dans les prochaines semaines, la vraie question sous-jacente qui déterminera les choix du Président de la République et du gouvernement est l’avenir d’EDF.Dans ce contexte, le WWF France publie une étude inédite qui propose un scénario permettant à la fois à la France d’atteindre ses objectifs climatiques et énergétiques, en réduisant à 50% la part du nucléaire dans le mix électrique d’ici 2030, et à EDF d’assurer son avenir…

Implementing coal transitions Insights from case studies of major coal-consuming economies: A Summary Report of the Coal Transitions project / Oliver Sartor. Paris : Iddri, Sept. 2018, 42 p. (Based on inputs developed under the Coal Transitions Research Project) https://coaltransitions.org/reports/

This report summarises the main insights from Coal Transitions research project. Firstly, it outlines the growing momentum behind coal transitions around the world, due to economic, technological and policy factors. Secondly, the report highlights key findings from case studies of six major coal-consuming countries (China, India, Poland, Germany, Australia and South Africa), which explore how “below-2°C”-compatible transitions away from thermal coal could be implemented. The report notes that, with the right policies, coal transitions that are consistent with the goals of the Paris Agreement can be done in an economically affordable and socially acceptable way.

Optimal Allocation of Variable Renewable Energy Considering Contributions to Security of Supply / Jakob Petera, Johannes Wagnera. Institute of Energy Economics at the University of Cologne (EWI), Aug. 2018, 37 p. https://ideas.repec.org/p/ris/ewikln/2018_002.html

Electricity markets are increasingly influenced by variable renewable energy such as wind and solar power with a pronounced weather-induced variability and imperfect predictability. As a result, the evaluation of the capacity value of variable renewable energy, i.e. its contribution to security of supply, gains importance. This paper develops a new methodology to endogenously determine the capacity value in large-scale investment and dispatch models for electricity markets. The framework allows to account for balancing effects due to the spatial distribution of generation capacities and interconnectors. The practical applicability of the methodology is shown with an application for wind power in Europe. We find that wind power can substantially contribute to security of supply in a decarbonized European electricity system in 2050, with regional capacity values ranging from 1 – 40 %. Analyses, which do not account for the temporal and spatial heterogeneity of the contribution of wind power to security of supply therefore lead to inefficient levels of dispatchable back-up capacity. Applying a fixed wind power capacity value of 5% results in an overestimation of firm capacity requirements in Europe by 66GW in 2050. This translates to additional firm capacity provision costs of 3.8 bn EUR per year in 2050, which represents an increase of 7 %.

Setting with the Sun: The Impacts of Renewable Energy on Wholesale Power Markets / James Bushnell, Kevin Novan, NBER Working Paper No. 24980, August 2018 DRAFT

Policies supporting investment in renewable electricity have been a cornerstone of climate policy in many parts of the world. While previous empirical work explores the economic and environmental impacts of renewable production, the focus has exclusively been on the short-run impacts of expanding renewable supply. In this paper, we shed light on the longer run impacts of renewable expansions. Focusing on the California electricity market, we estimate how wholesale electricity prices have responded to a dramatic increase in utility-scale solar capacity. While a substantial decline in daily average prices can be attributed to the solar capacity expansion, this average price impact masks a substantial decrease in mid-day prices combined with an increase in shoulder hour prices. These results imply that short-term power markets are responding to the renewable expansion in a fashion that could sustain more flexible conventional generation, while seriously undermining the economic viability of traditional baseload generation technologies.

La France amorce le virage vers le véhicule électrique : et si nous étions sur la bonne voie ? / Stéphane Amant, Hughes-Marie Aulanier, Clément Ramos, Aurélien Schuller et Sébastien Timsit. Carbone 4, 3/09/2018, 20 p. (note de synthèse) http://www.carbone4.com/vehicule-electrique/

Le véhicule électrique à batteries est-il aussi bénéfique pour le climat que ce que l’on suppose ? Notre réseau électrique tiendra-t-il le choc face à un afflux massif de véhicules électriques sur les routes ? Le développement du véhicule électrique à batteries n’est-il pas une utopie compte-tenu de la disponibilité des ressources minérales nécessaires ? Longtemps considéré comme un serpent de mer, le développement soutenu du véhicule électrique en France est sur le point de devenir une réalité. Cependant, face à ses vertus affichées et revendiquées, certaines voix se font entendre pour exprimer de nombreuses préoccupations et fustiger une « fausse bonne idée ». Carbone 4 répond à ces préoccupations pour donner sa vision de la place à accorder au véhicule électrique à batteries dans la mobilité de demain en se focalisant plus précisément sur l’automobile.

Danièle Revel

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