Energie : papiers de recherche moissonnés (25/02/2019)

Informed Trading in the WTI Oil Futures Market / Olivier Rousse et Benoît Sévi. Energy Journal, vol. 40, n°2, pp. 139-160. https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02024317

The weekly release of the U.S. inventory level by the DOE-EIA is known as the market mover in the U.S. oil futures market. We uncover suspicious trading patterns in the WTI futures markets in days when the inventory level is released that are higher than market forecasts: there are significantly more orders initiated by buyers in the two hours preceding the official release of the inventory level, with a drop in the average price of –0.25% ahead of the news release. This finding is consistent with informed trading. We also provide evidence of an asymmetric response of the oil price to oil-inventory news, and highlight an over-reaction that is partly compensated in the hours following the announcement.

Construire une politique énergétique et climatique européenne cohérente / Gissela Landa Rivera, Paul Malliet, Aurélien Saussay et Frédéric Reynès, Revue de l’OFCE, 158 (2018), 18 p. https://ideas.repec.org/p/spo/wpmain/infohdl2441-3khs2u12u59na9bkav8nst60r8.html

L’Union européenne (UE) a acquis au cours des deux dernières décennies une position de leader dans la lutte contre le changement climatique. Cependant, malgré les progrès significatifs réalisés en matière de réduction des émissions de gaz à effet de serre (GES) au cours de cette période, l’efficacité du pilotage de la politique climatique et énergétique au niveau de l’UE demeure insatisfaisante. Dans cet article, nous nous efforçons d’identifier le rôle que l’UE peut jouer pour faciliter la mise en œuvre de politiques de transition énergétique ambitieuses. Tout d’abord, si la gestion des projets liés à la transition énergétique est généralement mieux adaptée au niveau local ou national, le niveau européen reste le plus approprié pour collecter des fonds ou piloter des infrastructures transnationales de réseaux d’énergie et de transport…

Oil and Gas in a New Libyan Era: Conflict and Continuity / Richard Barltrop, Independent Consultant. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, Feb. 2019, 25 p. (OIES PAPER: MEP 22) https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/oil-gas-new-libyan-era-conflict-continuity/

This paper analyses the political economy of oil and gas in Libya, examining how the country’s politics affect the oil and gas industry, what has and has not changed since 2011, and the implications and outlook for the future. It begins by briefly reviewing the history of oil and gas development in Libya before 2011. It then proceeds to examine what has happened in the latest, contrasting, period from 2011 to 2018, focusing on how insecurity and political division (in particular the existence of rival governments) have affected the sector, and identifying what the biggest continuities and changes have been. The paper then considers how stability in the NOC and the role of individuals have been, and continue to be, significant for outcomes and prospects, and how competition from local actors seeking oil benefits is intertwined with ongoing dynamics. Finally, the implications for Libya’s future are considered.

Prospective énergétique à l’horizon 2050. Vers un après pétrole ? / Fabien Giuliani. Editions de l’Institut des transitions, 2018, 30 p. https://institut-transitions.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Apre%CC%80s-pe%CC%81trole-Giuliani-2018.pdf

Cette étude prospective propose d’examiner à moyen terme – à l’horizon 2050 – différentes évolutions possibles du système énergétique mondial. Elle n’a pas vocation à se substituer aux travaux de prévisions quantitatives mais vise à les compléter par un examen systémique donnant lieu à l’exploration de scénarios qualitatifs…

Oil Price Paths in 2019: Navigating Volatile Markets / Bassam Fattouh & Andreas Economou. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, Feb. 2019, 18 p. (Energy Insight: 27) https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/oil-price-paths-2019-navigating-volatile-markets/

After a sharp fall towards the end of 2018, oil prices in 2019 started on a positive note recovering some of their losses. From the low point of $50/b reached on 28 December, the daily Brent price has increased to above $60/b with many analysts now expecting another year of sustained price volatility driven by a wide uncertainty pertaining to global supply and demand trends. But unlike 2017 and 2018, the woes engulfing the oil market in 2019 have extended to the demand-side. The prospects of the global economy and its potential impact on global oil demand, as well as the ability of OPEC+ producers to successfully enforce the agreed or even implement future deeper cuts (if necessary) to rebalance the market in the face of negative demand shocks are at the core of the current debate. Also, the unfolding geopolitical developments in Iran and Venezuela are expected to play a pivotal role in shaping oil market outcomes in 2019. In this Energy Insight, we revisit the main factors that shaped oil market dynamics in 2018 and analyse how the oil price path could evolve in 2019 by evaluating the prevailing risks underlying the world oil market using real-time forecast scenarios of the Brent price.

French gas customers face a real risk from a No Deal Brexit / Thierry Bros & Patrick Heather. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, Feb. 2019, 3 p. (OXFORD ENERGY COMMENT) https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/french-gas-customers-face-real-risk-no-deal-brexit/

Much is reported in the press on the UK government’s struggle to negotiate the withdrawal agreement, and the main focus as we approach the deadline has been on the potential impact of a so-called No Deal Brexit on the UK economy.French energy law specifies that only companies based in the EU have the authorisation to supply gas in France; unless a specific agreement can be reached on this issue before the withdrawal date, all  shippers on the French network based in the UK will, on 30th March, automatically lose their authorisation to supply gas in France. This situation concerns some 10 or so shippers who set up their trading desks in the UK, as the British fiscal regime was far more conducive to their activities than that in France. The French State is not willing, nor is it able, to fast track a change in the law to accommodate UK companies post-Brexit. The current situation shows how much still needs to be done, because the consequences are potentially major as the amount of gas ‘at risk’ is possibly up to 40 per cent of demand.

It Don’t Mean a Thing, If It Ain’t Got That Swing: Why Gas Flexibility Is High on the Agenda for Russia and Europe / Vitaly Yermakov, Oxford Institute fo Energy Studies, Feb. 2019, 26 p. (Energy Insight: 48) https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/dont-mean-thing-aint-got-swing-gas-flexibility-high-agenda-russia-europe/

The question of flexibility is always important for the gas industry because of the seasonal nature of gas demand. In the past few years the role of flexible Russian gas in meeting Europe’s growing call on gas has been indispensable. This paper looks at how Russia meets its own flexibility requirements in the domestic market and whether peak domestic demand for gas in Russia can introduce constraints on seasonal export flow flexibility. It proceeds with analysis of the roles of seasonal production swings and gas withdrawals from storage in Russia and in Europe in covering seasonal demand peaks.

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