Energie : papiers de recherche moissonnés (3/05/2019)

Russia-Ukraine transit talks: the risks to gas in Europe / Simon Pirani, Oxford Institute or Energy Studies, may 2019, 6 p. (Oxford energy comment) lien

Trilateral talks between the EU, Russia and Ukraine on gas transit through Ukraine after 1 January 2020 – that is, after the expiry of the current transit contract – are due to resume in late May. Gazprom’s transit diversification projects, Nord Stream 2 and Turkish Stream, will not be operating at full capacity by that time and arrangements must be made. But there is little sign of progress in the talks and political factors could prevent a deal being done. Companies and governments are assessing the risk of a supply interruption. Should one occur, it could have a lasting negative impact on the position of gas in Europe.

Central Asia Oil and Gas Industry – The External Powers’ Energy Interests in Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan / Pier Paolo Raimondi. Fondazione ENi Enrico Mattei, March 2019, 83 p. (Nota di lavoro ; 006-2019) lien

After the Soviet breakup, Central Asia has gained importance for several States because of its geographical location and abundance of hydrocarbon reserves. These hydrocarbon reserves are located mainly in three countries: Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Each of them has taken different path regarding its foreign policy and the regulation of investments and participation of external companies and States in its energy sector. Through the development, production and export of their oil and gas reserves, they have pursued a ‘multi-vector’ policy, consolidating differently their relations with other countries…

Diversification in Gulf hydrocarbon economies and interactions with energy subsidy reform: lessons from Kuwait / Manal Shehabi, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, April 2019, 26 p. (OIES PAPER: MEP 23) lien

After the recent oil price declines in mid-2014, Middle East and North Africa (MENA) oil exporters including Kuwait reduced energy subsidies and passed economic diversification-enhancing policies in an attempt to improve fiscal balance and economic sustainability. This paper argues that these economies already have a diversified base but this base has not contributed to export or fiscal diversification due to structural constraints and economic distortions.  Using illustrations from Kuwait, this argument is tested with simulations using an economy-wide general equilibrium model that embodies key features of the Kuwaiti economy—including subsidies, sovereign wealth funds, industrial oligopolistic structure with collusive pricing, and a labour market that depends heavily on a segregated expatriate labour force…

Iranian Sanctions 2.0: Oil Market Risks and Price Stakes / Bassam Fattouh and Andreas Economou. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, April 2019, 8 p. (Oxford energy comment) lien

Before the recent announcement on Iran sanction waivers, the base case for most analysts was that the US would renew the waivers allowing a few buyers to continue importing limited quantities of Iranian oil. The logic behind this thinking was very simple: the Trump administration would not risk an oil price spike that could endanger US growth prospects and hurt motorists by tightening sanctions on Iran and disrupting oil exports further. Thus, President Trump’s latest decision not to reissue waivers caught the market off guard and caused a mini rally in the oil price with Brent prices reaching a six month high of near $75/b. Trump has been keen to emphasize that the US secured offset commitments from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and that these countries ‘along with other friends and allies, have committed to ensure that global oil markets remain adequately supplied … and that global demand is met as all Iranian oil is removed from the market’…

A review of prospects for natural gas as a fuel in road transport / Chris Le Fevre. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, April 2019, 32 p. lien

The number of Natural Gas Vehicles (NGVs) worldwide continues to grow though there are major differences between countries both in terms of levels of penetration and underlying drivers.  NGVs have some environmental advantages over petroleum-based fuels – particularly if biomethane is available – and, in many markets, are cheaper. However, the prospects for NGVs in the smaller vehicle sector are diminishing due to the rapid growth in electric vehicles. The growth outlook for heavy vehicles is brighter where electric traction is still less of an option. This insight explores these issues, examines the factors behind the range in uptake of NGVs between different countries and provides some indications of future growth prospects.

Climat-énergie : la France doit se donner les moyens. Avis sur les projets de Stratégie nationale bas-carbone et de Programmation pluriannuelle de l’énergie / Guillaume Duval et Madeleine Charru. Conseil économique social et environnemental, avril 2019, 92 p. (CESE 10) lien

Les projets de Stratégie nationale bas-carbone (SNBC) pour 2019-2033 et de Programmation pluriannuelle de l’énergie (PPE) pour 2019-2028 ont été rendus publics en décembre 2018 et janvier 2019, dans un contexte qui rappelle combien l’articulation entre transition énergétique et justice sociale reste délicate. Ces textes doivent fournir à tous les acteurs un cadre stable leur permettant d’investir massivement dans la transition énergétique. Dans cet avis, le CESE note tout d’abord l’important retard pris lors de la première période de programmation 2015-2018. Malgré cela, il salue l’objectif de « neutralité carbone » à l’horizon 2050 fixé par le nouveau projet de SNBC. Mais, pour que la France puisse atteindre ces objectifs ambitieux, il faut qu’elle engage des moyens à la hauteur des enjeux, qu’elle définisse un cadre plus clair et plus stable pour favoriser la transition énergétique et qu’elle articule mieux les différents niveaux d’action pour une plus grande efficacité et une meilleure appropriation.


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