Energie : papiers de recherche moissonnés (24/05/2019)

Decarbonization and industrial demand for gas in Europe / Anouk Honoré, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, May 2019, 45 p. ( OIES paper ; NG 146) lien

The EU is committed to reducing its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 80–95 per cent below 1990 levels. So far, the electricity sector has been the main focus of EU low-carbon policies, but if Europe is to meet its objectives, decarbonization efforts will need to expand to other sectors. Heat and transport are the next two sectors to be targeted in public discussion about climate change, while emissions from the industrial sector rarely feature on the agenda. Approximately 65 per cent of the energy used in the industry is derived directly from using fossil fuels, including natural gas (27 per cent). Transitioning to a low-carbon industrial sector will change this mix and lower fossil fuel demand as shown in scenarios published by Shell, Equinor, the IEA and the EU. One problem is that these models tend to simulate the industrial sector in an aggregate way that obscures the sectoral diversity of the sector, and as a result, the capacities for (or the constraints on) replacing fossil fuels to abate emissions…

Relever le défi énergétique et climatique en Europe : les propositions de cinq think tanks / Antoine Guillou, Thomas Pellerin-Carlin, Emmanuel Tuchscherer, Charlotte Vailles, Ian Cochran, Lola Vallejo, Nicolas Berghmans. Paris : IDDRI, mai 2019, 23 p. lien

Le défi climatique et énergétique fait ainsi écho aux débats fondamentaux présents au cœur du projet européen. Pour y répondre, nos think tanks se sont associés pour identifier des propositions concrètes, chacun sur un champ d’action déterminant : la gouvernance de la politique énergétique et climatique européenne, le verdissement de la finance et du budget européen, les instruments en faveur de la justice sociale et de l’innovation, la politique commerciale et, enfin, la décarbonation du secteur électrique. Notre conviction est qu’il y a urgence: pourne pas s’enfermer dans des choix incompatibles avec la préservation du climat et de l’environnement et être à la hauteur des enjeux, la mandature européenne 2019-2024 devra impulser des transformations profondes et irréversibles. Il faut désormais agir résolument et sans attendre sur l’ensemble des leviers disponibles !

The age of electricity / Dieter Helm and Cameron Hepburn, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Volume 35, Issue 2, Summer 2019, Pages 183–196 lien

The age of electricity is coming, driven by rapid technological change. On the demand side, the digitalization of many processes is leading to technologies that require electricity, rather than liquid or solid fuels. On the supply side, renewable energy technologies provide electricity directly, at falling cost. Electrification, directly and indirectly (e.g. using electricity to produce hydrogen fuel) can aid the decarbonization of the economy; strong climate policy would accelerate electrification. The big question is when, not if, and the transition is not occurring anywhere near fast enough to meet the Paris climate goals. The immediate impact of the coming age of electricity is the transformation of electricity markets, which need to adapt to near zero marginal costs and intermittency. In the longer term, the impact on fossil fuels will be radical. Fossil fuel prices will fall with demand, and the oil and gas majors will either completely transform themselves or will harvest profits and exit.

World Energy Investment 2019 / IEA. Paris : OECD, May 2019, 176 p. lien

The International Energy Agency’s annual benchmark for tracking energy investment, World Energy Investment 2019 provides a full picture of today’s capital flows and what they might mean for tomorrow’s energy sector. It assesses whether the frameworks and strategies put in place by governments, the energy industry, and financial institutions are spurring timely investment, and how spending across sectors and technologies matches with the world’s energy security and sustainability needs. This year’s edition looks at trends in investment and financing in 2018 across all areas of energy supply, efficiency, and research & development, key markets and sectors driving these trends, from electricity in Asia to fuel supply in North America, as well as the sectors and regions where energy capital flows are constrained. The analysis also examines how industry is responding to investment risks and opportunities, including through shorter-cycle oil and gas projects, financial risk management strategies for renewable power, financing models for energy efficiency, and in capital allocation decisions across sectors. And it looks at the implications of today’s trends, such as whether investment is sufficient to satisfy the world’s growing demand for energy, and whether enough capital is going into energy efficiency, renewable energy, and other low-carbon technologies to accelerate the pace of global energy transitions.

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