Energie : papiers de recherche moissonnés (13/09/2019)

National institutional systems’ hybridisation through interdependence. The case of EU-Russia gas relations / Mehdi Abbas and Catherine Locatelli, Post-Communist Economies, published online: 14 Aug 2019 lien

The interdependencies between the EU and its external natural gas suppliers and Russia question the transformative impact of interdependence linked to hybridisation processes. Our approach combines theories of institutional change and French Regulation Theory. These approaches lead to a new look to characterise the way in which the confrontation of two regulatory systems (European Union [EU] and Russia) is resolved today. The importance of the European market leads however to an adaptation of the Russian governance model for gas exchanges. But it also implies a transformation of the European model. The competitive norm acts as a lever to bring about hybridisation of regulations in the Russian gas sector and EU energy policy.

The Future of Gas Networks : Key Issues for Debate / Chris N Le Fevre, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, September 2019, 6 p. lien

The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies held a Work​shop on “The Future of Gas Networks” to examine decarbonisation plans and the impact of the potential growth in the use of renewable and decarbonised gases in Europe. Participants included representatives from nine European gas network companies (both transmission and distribution), technical experts in decarbonisation, regulators, government officials and academics. This document summarises the seven key issues for debate arising from the Workshop discussions.

The Future of Russian Oil Production in the Short, Medium, and Long Term / James Henderson & Ekaterina Grushevenko, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, September 2019, 22 p. (Energy Insight: 57) lien

This paper analyses the history of oil production in Russia since 2016, including the impact of the OPEC+ agreements, and then looks at the short-term outlook for the period to 2025 from existing assets and known new fields. It then assesses the potential of a number of new areas for production growth, namely enhanced production from existing assets using secondary and tertiary recovery techniques; opportunities in new regions of Russia outside the heartlands of West Siberia and European Russia; the upside from hard-to-recover oil, including shale, tight oil, and heavy oil deposits; the potential for increased output from Russia’s offshore areas; and the development of the huge resources in the Russian Arctic. We also consider the possible changes in the tax regime that might encourage development in all these areas, before providing conclusions on the likely drivers of Russian oil production through the next decade and beyond.

The Shale Oil Boom and the US Economy: Spillovers and Time-Varying Effects / Hilde C. Bjørnland and Julia Zhulanova. Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, August 2019, 60 p. (CAMA Working Paper 59/2019) lien

We analyze if the transmission of oil price shocks on the U.S. economy has changed with the shale oil boom. To do so, we put forward a framework that allows for spillovers between industries and learning by doing (LBD) over time. We identify these spillover using a time-varying parameter factor-augmented vector autoregressive (VAR) model with both state level and country level data. In contrast to previous results, we find considerable changes in the way oil price shocks are transmitted to the U.S economy: there are now positive spillovers to non-oil investment, employment and production from an increase in the oil price – effects that were not present before the shale oil boom.

Economic Disruptions in Long-Term Energy Scenarios – Implications for Designing Energy Policy / Kristina Govorukha, Philip Mayer, Dirk Rübbelke, and Stefan Vögele. Milano, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, June 2019, 29 p. (Nota di Lavoro 17.2019) lien

The main drivers of transformation processes of electricity markets stem from climate
policies and changing economic environments. In order to analyse the respective
developments, modelling approaches regularly rely on multiple structural and parametric
simplifications. For example, discontinuities in economic development (recessions and
booms) are frequently disregarded. Distorting effects that are caused by such simplifications
tend to scale up with an extension of the time horizon of the analysis and can significantly
affect the accuracy of long-term projections. In this study, we include information on
economic discontinuities and elaborate on their influences on short-and long-term modelling
outcomes. Based on historical data, we identify the impact of a high-amplitude change in
economic parameters and examine its cumulative effect on the German electricity market by
applying a techno-economic electricity market model for the period from 2005 to 2014.
Similar changes may consistently occur in the future and we expect that a more
comprehensive understanding of their effects on long-term scenarios will increase the
validity of long-term models. Results indicate that policy decision making based on modelling
frameworks can benefit from a comprehensive understanding of the underlying
simplifications of most scenario studies.

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