Energie : papiers de recherche moissonnés (16/01/2020)

Photovoltaic Smart Grids in the Prosumers Investment Decisions: a Real Option Model / Marta Castellini, Francesco Menoncin, Michele Moretto, Sergio Vergalli. Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, 2019 (FEEM nota di lavoro ; 28.19) lien

The digitization of power system represents one of the main instruments to achieve the target set by the European Union 2030 climate and energy Agenda of affordable energy transition. During the last years, such innovation process has been associated with the Smart Grid (SG) term. In this context, efficiency and flexibility of power systems are expected to increase and energy consumers to be active also on the production side, thus becoming prosumers (agents that both produce and consume energy). This paper provides a theoretical real option framework with the aim to model prosumers’ decision to invest in photovoltaic power plants, assuming that they are integrated in a Smart Grid. Our main focus is to study the optimal plant size and the optimal investment threshold, in a context where exchange of energy among prosumers is possible. The model was calibrated and tested with data from the Northern Italy energy market. Our findings show that the possibility of selling energy between prosumers, via the Smart Grid, increases investment values. This opportunity encourages prosumers to invest in a larger plant compared with the case without exchange possibility and that there is a positive relation between optimal size and (optimal) investment timing. The effect of uncertainty is in line with the literature, showing increasing value to defer with volatility.

Smart Consumers in the Internet of Energy: Flexibility Markets & Services from Distributed Energy Resources / Monica Giulietti, Chloé Le Coq, Bert Willems and Karim Anaya. Centre on Regulation in Europe, 2019, 86 p. lien

This report analyses international case studies of innovative business models and regulatory arrangements and provides recommendations for a truly smart energy system. 

10 Years: Progress to Action. Abu Dhabi, Irena, Jan. 2020, 20 p. lien

Renewable energy has advanced since 2010 to the centre ground of global energy and development policy. Renewables have become the world’s primary source of new power capacity, outpacing all other forms of new generation put together. This booklet, produced for the 10th Assembly of the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), charts global advances over the past decade and outlines key objectives for a new Decade of Action. Graphs and data underline the progress achieved and the illuminate road ahead.
Renewable energy solutions are affordable, readily and deployable at scale. It’s possible to scale up renewables, achieve sustainable development and meet key climate goals.

The Soleimani Effect: A Game-Changer for Iraqi Crude Dynamics? / Ahmed Mehdi, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, Jan. 2020, 10 p. (Oxford energy comment) lien

With the market having shrugged off the latest escalation between the United States and Iran, some of the aftershocks of recent events have heightened the risk of future US-Iran rivalry playing out in Iraq – OPEC’s second largest producer and a key source of oil supply growth out to 2030. Next month’s decision by Washington as to whether or not to renew US sanctions waivers allowing Iraq to import Iranian gas volumes will provide clues as to whether recent events prove a geopolitical game-changer (or not) to Iraq’s oil (and energy) sector. As this comment explains, Iraq’s post 2009 oil production growth took place against the backdrop of major challenges (a difficult investment environment, fiscal crises, protests, and a volatile security and geopolitical environment). In this light, a sober assessment of Iraq’s oil outlook needs to consider how any structural shift to Iraq’s geopolitical position interacts with pre-existing challenges to the next chapter of production growth: deflationary forces in the oil market; the growing cost and complexity of upstream operations; the growing need for water to maintain and increase oil output; and the need to integrate upstream growth with midstream and downstream development.

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