Revising Russia’s energy strategy

Revising Russia’s energy strategy / Louis Skyner, Chatham House, October 2011, 16 p. (REP/EERG BP 2011/01)

http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/1011bp_skyner_0.pdf

• The financial and economic crisis of 2008 revealed the extent to which the Russian economy is exposed to developments in the global financial and energy markets.
• Uncertainty in the European gas market, the growth of liquefied natural gas and unconventional gas, and the decline of domestic oil production are forcing Russia to rethink its energy strategy.
• The combination of maintaining supply and contract models in existing markets and expanding supply in new markets reveals the new direction of Russian thinking on gas markets.
• The initiation of the reform of oil taxation also shows the development of a more long-term Russian perspective on domestic oil production.
• Russia’s dependency on revenue from the export of oil and gas for funding public expenditure still constrains choices in terms of macroeconomic and fiscal policy.
• The survival of Gazprom as a monopoly with regard to transportation and export, and the vertically integrated nature of the oil industry complicate policy choices for eliminating subsidies and improving efficiency.
• The developing relationship between markets and the price obtainable will determine policy and investment choices, and thus the necessity of reform. Political considerations will continue to be prevalent, both in delivering on social commitments and in maintaining external influence.