Energie : papiers de recherche moissonnés (23/04/2020)

What can be learned from the free destination option in the LNG imbroglio? / Amina Baba, Anna Creti et Olivier Massol. Climate Economics Chair, 23 April 2020, 39 p. (working paper n° 2020-04) lien

We examine the profitability of flexible routing by LNG cargoes for a single supplier taking into account uncertainty in the medium-term dynamics of gas markets. First, we model the trajectory of natural gas prices in Asia, Northern America, and Europe using a Threshold Vector AutoRegression representation (TVAR) in which the system’s dynamics switches back and forth between high and low regimes of oil price volatility. We then use the generalized impulse response functions (GIRF) obtained from the estimated threshold model to analyze the effects of volatility shocks on the regional gas markets dynamics. Lastly, the valuation of destination flexibility in LNG supplies is conducted using a real option approach. We generate a sample of possible future regional price trajectories using Monte Carlo simulations of our empirical model and determine for each trajectory the optimal shipping decisions and their profitability. Our results portend a substantial source of profit for the industry and reveal future movements of vessels. We discuss the conditional impact of destination flexibility on the globalization of natural gas markets.

A Comparative History of Oil and Gas Markets and Prices: is 2020 just an extreme cyclical event or an acceleration of the energy transition? / The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, Jonathan Stern and Adi Imsirovic, (Energy Insight: 68), April 2020, 22 pages, lien

Natural gas markets have gone through an unprecedented transformation. Demand growth for this relatively clean, plentiful, versatile and now relatively cheap fuel has been increasing faster than for other fossil fuels.1 Historically a `poor relation’ of oil, gas is now taking centre stage. New markets, pricing mechanisms and benchmarks are being developed, and it is only natural to be curious about the direction these developments are taking. The oil industry has had a particularly rich and well recorded history, making it potentially useful for comparison. However, oil and gas are very different fuels and compete in different markets. Their paths of evolution will very much depend on what happens in the markets for energy sources with which they compete. Their history is rich with dominant companies, government intervention and cycles of boom and bust.

Global Renewables Outlook: Energy transformation 2050 / The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), Avril 2020. ISBN : 978-92-9260-238-3 lien

Advancing the renewable-based energy transformation is an opportunity to meet international climate goals while boosting economic growth, creating millions of jobs and improving human welfare by 2050. The first Global Renewables Outlook released today by IRENA finds that transforming the energy system could boost cumulative global GDP gains above business-as-usual by USD 98 trillion between now and 2050. It would nearly quadruple renewable energy jobs to 42 million, expand employment in energy efficiency to 21 million, and add 15 million in system flexibility.

Reconciling Carbon Pricing and Energy Policies in Developing Countries : Integrating Policies for a Clean Energy Transition / Christophe De Gouvello, Dominique Finon et Pierre Guigon. World Bank, Washington, 2020 lien

Le rapport se concentre sur la manière dont l’objectif de réduction des émissions peut être poursuivi de façon cohérente avec les priorités des politiques énergétiques des pays de différents niveaux en développement. La première partie du rapport examine les interactions positives et négatives entre les politiques climatiques et énergétiques et les défis qui y sont liés. La deuxième partie se concentre sur les conflits potentiels entre la tarification du carbone et les instruments de politique énergétique existants, et sur la manière de les concilier par des ajustements soit de la tarification du carbone, soit des seconds. La troisième partie présente les options permettant d’assurer la pleine intégration des politiques carbone et d’énergie et des instruments qui leur sont associés afin de conduire le développement vers des trajectoires bas carbone. Il faut pour ce faire ne pas hésiter à recourir à des instruments tarifaires, notamment pour faciliter les financements d’investissements en équipements bas carbone. Le rapport se conclut par une feuille de route pour les praticiens du climat et de l’énergie dans les pays en développement, qui définit un ensemble de principes directeurs à partir des principales conclusions. Cette feuille de route devrait faciliter la conciliation de la politique carbone et de la politique énergétique afin d’assurer  leur mise en œuvre efficace économiquement.

Essays on the Economics of Sustainable Energy Policies / Luisa Dressler, Reflets et perspectives de la vie économique, 2019/4, tome LVII, pp. 31-40 lien

This dissertation seeks to contribute to the policy discussion on how to design efficient and sustainable energy policies. It applies microeconomic theory and empirical analysis to identify three market failures in European energy markets and to evaluate specific policy measures that strive to overcome them. Chapter 1 applies a theoretical model to study the effect of different renewable energy subsidies on producer strategies and competition in wholesale electricity markets. Chapter 2 empirically quantifies different reasons for switching inertia in the retail electricity market using a structural discrete choice model and evaluates policy measures that seek to overcome inertia. Chapter 3 empirically analyses the effect of a European policy that mandates the use of energy performance certificates aiming at establishing an efficient market for energy efficient rental property.

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