Étiqueté : Integrated Assessment

Abandoning fossil fuel : how fast and how much ?

« Climate change must deal with two market failures, global warming and learning by doing in renewable use. The social optimum requires an aggressive renewables subsidy in the near term and a gradually rising carbon tax which falls in long run. As a result, more renewables are used relative to fossil fuel, there is an intermediate phase of simultaneous use, the carbon- free era is brought forward, more fossil fuel is locked up and global warming is lower. The optimal carbon tax is not a fixed proportion of world GDP. The climate externality is more severe than the learning by doing on… »

Mitigation under long-term growth uncertainty

« Economic growth over the coming centuries is one of the major determinants of today’s optimal greenhouse gas mitigation policy. At the same time, long-run economic growth is highly uncertain. This paper is the first to evaluate optimal mitigation policy under long-term growth uncertainty in a stochastic integrated assessment model of climate change… »

Long-term transport energy demand and climate policy

Transportation accounts for a substantial share of CO2 emissions, and decarbonizing transport will be necessary to limit global warming to below 2°C. Due to persistent reliance on fossil fuels, it is posited that transport is more difficult to decarbonize than other sectors. We test this hypothesis by comparing long-term transport energy demand and emission projections for China, USA and the world from five large-scale energy-economy models with respect to three climate policies…

Beyond Rio: Sustainable energy scenarios for the 21st century

The scenario pathways presented in this paper describe transformative changes toward these goals, taking a broad view of the four main energy challenges faced by society in the 21st century: providing universal access to modern energy for all; reducing the impacts of energy production on human health and the environment; avoiding dangerous climate change; and enhancing energy security…